Since late August 2021, production and power rationing for industrial and commercial users has been widespread in Yunnan and Zhejiang provinces. In late September, 2011, "power rationing" occurred in many places in Northeast China, affecting industrial and commercial production power, transportation power and residential power, and causing serious impact on people's normal life. "Power rationing" also made this wave of power rationing become the focus of attention from all walks of life.
Recalling the pain, on the basis of analyzing the root causes of this wave of power rationing affecting the whole country, studying the measures and strategies to improve the power supply guarantee ability of China's power system under the "dual carbon" goal is the top priority to safeguard the livelihood of the people, social stability and economic development bottom line.
The superposition of many factors is the root of this round of power limiting tide
The power demand increases sharply year-on-year, causing the imbalance between supply and demand. After the COVID-19 epidemic was first brought under control in China, on the one hand, domestic consumer demand was fully released and the steady economic recovery promoted the continuous increase of electricity consumption; On the other hand, due to the sudden decline of foreign manufacturing capacity caused by COVID-19, a large number of international orders poured into China, resulting in a significant increase in electricity consumption growth. Combined with the above factors, China's total social electricity consumption from January to August reached 547.04 billion kilowatt-hours, up about 13.8% year on year. The electricity consumption demand exceeding expectations directly caused the contradiction of power supply and demand imbalance in many places.
Coal is in short supply and prices continue to rise. Domestically, since the supply-side reform in 2015, China's coal industry has been under continuous pressure. The proposal of the "dual carbon" target has further accelerated the process of eliminating "backward" capacity, while the increase of advantageous capacity in the same period is extremely limited. Internationally, the global spread of COVID-19 has led to a significant decline in exports of traditional coal exporting countries, and China's coal imports cannot effectively fill the gap in domestic production capacity. Under the influence of the above dual factors, China's coal price continues to rise. As of September, the thermal coal price of 5,500 kcal reached 1079 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year growth of about 91.6%.
KWH cost is difficult to channel, thermal power enterprises cost upside down. The game and contradiction between "market coal" and "planned power" has a long history. As the fuel cost accounts for about 70% of the power generation cost of thermal power units, the high coal price directly leads to the straight rise in the cost of thermal power generation. And although the country has issued "on deepening the reform of coal-fired electricity price formation mechanism of online guidance", the coal-fired electricity tariff benchmarking changed to "benchmark price + floating up and down" market-oriented mechanism, but in the process of implementing more failed to make full use of floating space, power generation cost is difficult to downstream channel, resulting in thermal power enterprise cost down, Thermal power enterprise production capacity and production enthusiasm are seriously frustrated.
The "carbon reduction" and "dual control" work falls into the pattern of "movement" and lacks reasonable overall planning. At present, many places have too micro understanding of "carbon reduction" and "double control" work, failing to coordinate the relationship between economic development, energy conservation and emission reduction from the macro level, and failing to control the pace of local industrial transformation and upgrading. As a result, the "double control" index and "carbon emission" amount are exhausted early. Faced with the grim situation of energy saving and consumption reduction, more than 10 provinces, including Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shaanxi, have introduced policies of power and production restriction with varying intensity.
The flexibility of the power system needs to be improved. With the aim of "double carbon" and the new advance of the construction of the power system, represented by scenery of new energy on large-scale power grid, the supply end of clean energy units in power system than significantly increased, and the new energy generators, the randomness and volatility of technology characteristics lead to the generation is difficult to track curve of electricity demand side, the lack of flexibility under the condition of power system, To ensure the balance, safety and stability of the power system, power rationing measures have to be taken.
Research and suggestion on improving power supply guarantee capability of China's electric power system
We will do a good job in the top-level design of "dual carbon" and "dual control", and strike a balance in the "energy triangle". The implementation of the "double carbon" "double control" as a complex systemic project, you need to follow "is made" the principle of "eight" think twice, standardize the accounting on the carbon emissions, the total energy consumption and energy intensity levels, on the basis of combining with the regional economic level, industry structure, energy structure, factors such as regional development strategy, Deeply analyze and study the pain points and potential of emission reduction and consumption reduction in various industries, and resolve conflicts and problems between regions, short-term and long-term by strengthening top-level design. In advancing the "double carbon" "double control" in the process of work, shall be made in the top-level design, fully consider various industries, the energy consumption between the regional characteristics and complementary utilization potential, surrounding the safety, economy, environmental protection "energy triangle", continuously to work plan to carry out the dynamic optimization and rolling updates, for "double carbon" "double control" work order to promote and implement the escort.
We will deepen reform of systems and mechanisms and give full play to the leverage of prices. On the basis of expanding high-quality coal production capacity, we should continue to deepen the reform of electricity market, highlight the commodity properties of electricity to a certain extent, and make full use of the leverage of electricity price to improve the ability of optimal allocation of resources. To have part of the electricity market trading terms, should implement the good "benchmark price + floating up and down" the marketization of feed-in tariff mechanism, open the electricity price rise channel in time, ensure the electricity price under the "can can", let the price timely reflect the cost of production and coal supply and demand in the market, strengthen interact with the consumption of the electric power production end, guaranteeing timely guidance power production costs; To do not have part of the electricity market trading terms, should constantly improve electricity price mechanism, economic development level in different regions of full consideration, natural conditions, power consumption habits and other factors, on the basis of price, node price adjust measures to local conditions using partition, time-sharing electricity prices, such as solution, explore the user side method of building flexible mechanism of electricity price, Let the price of electricity fully reflect the cost, appropriately reflect the relationship between supply and demand, and then use the price signal in line with the objective demand for electricity to guide users to optimize power consumption behavior, effectively relieve the pressure of the power grid.
We will build a comprehensive energy system and develop comprehensive energy services. Around use can improve the efficiency, power reliability, use can lower costs, reducing carbon emissions and other pollutants emission reduction projects "three low" goal, the construction of integrated energy system, develop a comprehensive energy service, promote "horizontal can complement each other, vertical source net charge store coordination" development, speed up the construction of diversified clean energy system. From the supply side, the construction of integrated energy system can promote the power grid, micro can network and distributed power at all levels to coordinate energy network connectivity, effectively integrate area of petroleum, coal, natural gas and electricity and other energy resources, promote energy subsystem coordination between planning, optimizing operation, collaborative management, interactive response, and complementary to each other aid levels, To build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient supply system. From the demand side, the development of comprehensive energy services, accelerate the transformation of "physical energy" consumption concept to "energy, information and service" comprehensive consumption concept, through the creation of customized comprehensive energy solutions, while meeting the diversified energy needs of the economy and society, giving consideration to safety, economy and cleanliness.
We will improve the level of operation and dispatching and build a flexible and reliable power system. One is to accelerate the integration of digital technologies such as "cloud big thing transfer intelligent chain" with energy and power system, realize state perception of key equipment and key nodes of power system, and build digital twin image of power system, relying on data interaction, state synchronization and iterative optimization between physical world and virtual world. It can realize ultra-short-term prediction of new energy output, monitoring and early warning of equipment and pipe network performance, optimization of dispatching strategy and real-time delivery of instructions, and significantly improve the risk identification ability and dynamic optimization ability of power system operation. Second, strengthen the research on the coordinated planning of energy storage and "source-network-load", reasonably determine the development scale, facility layout, access scope and construction sequence of energy storage according to the development orientation of different regions and the demand for flexible resource regulation, and innovate the system and mechanism of energy storage operation with the development mode of sharing economy and platform economy. Explore and develop the potential and value of energy storage equipment in providing flexible resources.
Improve the level of demand side management and pay attention to the development of demand side resources. In rein in energy intensive and highly polluting industries development at the same time, should actively cultivate the virtual power plant, load aggregators, comprehensive energy service providers such as multivariate market main body, to share the development of economy, platform model encourage demand side business model and business mode innovation, relying on the wisdom of micro can net control platform, energy storage cloud platform, such as car networking platform, Guide and promote the demand side to explore and participate in market-based transactions of peak-FM auxiliary services, point-to-point transactions of decentralized renewable energy power, and comprehensive demand response, so as to fully explore and enhance the potential and utility of the demand side in renewable energy power consumption and peak-FM of power grid.
With the promotion of China's clean and low-carbon transformation process, especially the arrival of the winter peak power consumption and heating season, the contradiction between power supply and demand will still exist in the short term. However, in the long run, with the high attention of the central government, China will give full play to the institutional advantages of the national chess game, take multiple measures simultaneously to continuously promote the deepening of reform, and the contradiction between power supply and demand will be effectively alleviated.
Wuhan Xinshengneng is a professional power testing equipment manufacturer. We pay close attention to the development and trends of power grid related industries. For more information, visit wuhan Xinshengneng's official website: www.whxsn.com
