In order to promote the development of photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy industries in China and guide the whole society to actively participate in the green and low-carbon transformation, promote the mid - and long-term development of the new energy power industry and solve the market incentive problem after the withdrawal of subsidies, the green certificate system and the absorption weight of renewable energy, carbon trading and green electricity and other policies came into being.
LuZheng:
China began to implement green card trading in 2017. Currently, the green card trading is voluntary, and land wind, centralized photovoltaic and parity projects in the subsidy catalogue can apply. The purpose of implementing green card system in China is to relieve the pressure of new energy subsidy, guide the view of green electricity consumption and promote the utilization of clean energy. At present, the green card transactions in the voluntary subscription stage are not frequent, and are in the silent stage of volume without market. We believe that with the continuous popularization and deepening of the concept and value of carbon neutrality, the environmental value represented by green certificates will be recognized and valued by more people, and the enthusiasm of consumers to buy green certificates will be significantly increased. In order to better play the role of the green card system, the green card system is also expected to be further improved.
In our opinion, there are three possible improvement directions in the future: 1) The green card transaction should be changed from voluntary to compulsory, and the consumer should bear the cost of green card. 2) Design substantial incentive policies to encourage consumers to buy green electricity; 3) Cancel the quota system, the restriction of quota is directly completed by the percentage of green card consumption.
Quotas:
The introduction of renewable energy absorption responsibility weight (quota system) is mainly to solve the long-term development responsibility of renewable energy in China and promote the development of new energy industry from the demand side. The responsibility subject of the quota system is the power consumer, and the power consumption structure guides the development of the industry. The quota system is implemented with the green certificate system to provide counterparties and source power for pricing green certificates and obtaining subsidies for new energy power in the era of parity. China's non-water renewable energy consumption weight will increase year by year from 2021, and is expected to reach 25.9% by 2030. According to the policy, the power consumption weight of non-water renewable energy in all provinces will increase by about 1.5% annually, and the principle of "only increasing but not decreasing" will be followed. In 2022, China's renewable energy consumption is expected to reach 2,338.2 billion KWH and 2,503.7 billion KWH, an increase of 8.5% and 16.2% compared with the actual consumption in 2020. In 2022, China's non-water renewable energy consumption is expected to reach 1,119.9 billion KWH and 1,219.2 billion KWH, up 31.1% and 42.7% from the actual consumption in 2020, respectively.
Carbon trading market:
With carbon emission reduction as the focus, divide the right and responsibility of carbon emission from the supply side, and promote the energy transition? On July 16, carbon trading was officially launched nationwide, with more than 2,000 power generation companies participating in the trading.
According to the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange, in the first 16 trading days, the carbon emission quota (CEA) closed above 50 yuan, with an average closing price of 54.0 yuan/ton and an average trading price of 50.45 yuan/ton.
Volume: Except for the large trading volume realized on the first day, the overall CEA trading volume in other trading days showed a shrinking trend, with an average daily trading volume of 13.6 tons (excluding the first day). If the daily trading volume is maintained at this level, the annual CEA trading volume is about 33.92 million tons, calculated with an average trading price of 50.45 yuan/ton, based on 250 working days a year. The annual turnover will reach 1.711 billion yuan.
The carbon trading market divides the weight of carbon emissions of various industries and changes the energy structure from the supply side. Taking the power industry as an example, after the operation of the carbon trading market, the carbon price will be coupled with the cost of power generation to promote the transformation of China's energy structure. Based on four reasons, we believe that high-quality thermal power enterprises will be less affected in the short and medium term after the operation of the carbon market: 1) In order to realize the purpose of guiding users to use low-carbon energy through the price of electricity, thermal power enterprises are expected to transfer part of the carbon emission cost to the terminal in the future, which will be borne by power consumers; 2) The emission reduction transformation progress of thermal power enterprises ranks first among the eight emission reduction industries, and the pressure of emission reduction is relatively small in the short term; 3) Major thermal power energy groups have a large number of reserves of new energy projects, which can provide CCER; 4) After the role of thermal power is changed to peak regulation, carbon emission per kilowatt hour will increase. We believe that the carbon emission cost generated by peak regulation will be borne by the downstream. For scenery and other new energy, after the launch of the carbon trading market, new energy operators, as the main providers of carbon dioxide emission reduction and new energy electricity, will definitely increase their income and become the main beneficiaries.
Green electricity
Green electricity trading refers to medium and long term green electricity trading, which is organized by the existing power trading center. The main market players in the transaction are grid companies, wind and photovoltaic companies, electricity users and electricity sales companies. Electricity users are electricity companies with green electricity consumption demand, which will be expanded to include electric vehicles and energy storage.
The products to be traded are the on-grid electricity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. The electricity traded with subsidies for new energy will no longer receive subsidies, and will be extended to hydropower in the future.
The first trading mechanism is to purchase green electricity products through direct trading of electricity, in which power users (including power sales companies) and power generation enterprises directly reach transactions through bilateral negotiation, centralized matching, listing and other ways. The second is to purchase green electricity guaranteed to be purchased from power grid enterprises. Provincial power grid enterprises and power users can conduct centralized bidding, listing and trading.
Direct transaction price is formed by power generation enterprises and power users through bilateral negotiation and centralized matching. The transaction price of green electricity products purchased from power grid enterprises is formed through listing and centralized bidding.
The fully market-oriented green electricity surcharge income belongs to the power generation enterprises, and the subsidized green electricity surcharge income purchased from the power grid enterprises is used to hedge the government subsidies, while the other green electricity surcharge income guaranteed for Internet access is used exclusively for the construction of new power system.
These mechanisms are all aimed at promoting the formation of a market system and long-term mechanism for green energy production and consumption, promoting the construction of a new power system dominated by new energy, and controlling total carbon emissions. Green card and green electricity transaction are new energy electricity, but the scope of green card is larger, green electricity can be expanded to this scope, the transaction is "electricity", green electricity should be able to replace the green card. The scope of carbon emission trading is larger, involving not only the power system, but also "carbon". If the two are closely related, there is a problem of "electricity" and "carbon" connection. Among them, green electricity trading has obvious advantages. Green electricity trading by the existing electricity trading center to organize the implementation, just add a trading varieties, will buy electricity into green electricity, ready-made trading mechanism, trading mechanism, users don't have to buy the electricity, again to buy LuZheng, a transaction is to realize the green consumption, the seller can also be a fix, significantly more convenient and efficient. The power trading center is closely connected with the dispatching and settlement departments, which can comprehensively record the information of green electricity production, transaction, transmission, consumption and settlement, so as to realize the reliable traceability of the whole process and become more authoritative in the certification of green electricity consumption.
Wuhan Xinshengneng is a professional power testing equipment manufacturer. We pay close attention to the development and trends of power grid related industries. For more information, visit our official website: www.whxsn.com
