On March 15, 2021, the ninth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission pointed out the key work of carbon peak in the "14th Five-year Plan", and proposed to build a new power system with new energy as the main body for the first time.
The ability to regulate is central
In the traditional power system, coal power occupies the main position, on the one hand, to ensure the maximum demand for electricity; On the other hand, both sides of power generation should be adjusted to ensure the real-time power balance of the system.
With new energy as the main body of the new power system, from the current technical and economic level and development potential, photovoltaic wind power will become the leading role. As a result, due to the inherent intermittency and fluctuation of photovoltaic wind power output, the construction of regulation capacity will become the core of the construction of new power system. For the construction of regulation capacity, the advantages and disadvantages of different regulation methods (economy, development potential, construction period, etc.) should be compared in multiple dimensions, and the structure of "power supply" should be rationally planned and regulated.
From the perspective of increase, the focus is on the flexibility transformation of coal power generation, after all, the huge transformation potential of coal power generation (in 2020, the installed capacity of coal power generation will be 1.08 billion kW, if the peak adjustment depth transformation potential is 20%, about 220 million kW will be added regulation capacity, Far more than the existing pumping storage, gas and electricity regulation capacity of 160 million kilowatts) and indispensable other regulation is currently unmatched; The second is pumping storage and peak-modulated gas and electricity construction. The cost of pumping storage is low but the construction period is long, while the gas and electricity construction is opposite. The two can be complementary. Thirdly, electrochemical energy storage pilot demonstration, after all, economic, safety, technology diversity and other problems have not been overcome; From the perspective of reduction, on the one hand, the power demand side response, through market means to resolve the annual peak load of tens of hours required adjustment capacity; On the one hand, it is reasonable to determine the rate of abandoning light and wind to reduce the very low marginal effect in the consumption guarantee.
Price mechanism is the breakthrough
In the traditional power system, the quantity of electricity is the most important object of pricing, and the pricing of electricity is only auxiliary (such as the auxiliary service of deep peak shaving).
In the new power system, the regulation ability has become the core, but the regulation ability is a typical link that brings value to power supply, power grid and users, and its benefit also needs to be measured from power supply, power grid and users. However, the existing electricity price mechanism is more electricity quantity mechanism, and the price strength and guiding ability cannot support the rapid development of regulation capacity construction.
In the future, once the electricity price mechanism is straightened out and the enthusiasm of regulation capacity construction is fully activated, the construction of new power system will usher in a major breakthrough.
Integration is a different approach
It takes a long time to straighten out the electricity price mechanism, and peaking carbon is a fixed term target.
Under the circumstance that the latter can't wait for the former, the proposal of the integration of power source network load and storage and multi-energy complementarity can be described as a new way, that is, under the principle of not increasing the peak pressure of large power network, a "test grid" can be drawn, which can not only carry out multi-energy complementarity between power sources, but also can carry out the integration of the whole link of source network load and storage.
Savor, integration in a sense is in the peak price mechanism is not perfect period, engage in "everything", so as to put aside the power supply or source network load storage between the unclear interests, explore the road to accelerate the construction of a new power system.
Technological progress is the catalyst
The new power system involves many technologies, such as photovoltaic wind power generation technology, electric energy storage technology, high proportion of electronic power system security and stability control technology. Among them, the further reduction of power generation costs driven by the progress of photovoltaic wind power technology will become a catalyst to build a new power system.
When the cost of photovoltaic wind power is reduced to 0.1 yuan/KWH, it is no longer a dream to break through the "impossible triangle" of energy, environment and economy (both energy use, no pollution, and cheap).
Unfortunately, although photovoltaic wind power has a promising future, the catalyst for technological progress is limited at a time when the cost of electricity generation is still at parity.
The rising cost of electricity is inevitable
Under the current situation that the cost of photovoltaic wind power generation has not been lowered enough, it is inevitable that the electricity cost of new power system will rise. As to whether electricity price rises homeopathy, it is an administrative art.
On the one hand, in recent years, the continuous reduction of general industrial and commercial electricity prices has achieved remarkable results, and the reduction of electricity prices has become a habit of public opinion. Coupled with the full recovery of the economy under the impact of COVID-19, the external environment for electricity price increases is not good. On the other hand, the long-term low residential electricity price support conditions -- cross subsidies increasingly inadequate, coal power utilization hour general decline caused by the operating difficulties may shake the overall foundation, and so on, forced to increase electricity prices.
In the future, residents' ladder electricity price improvement, electricity spot price entry, high reliability electricity price promotion will be expected to emerge.
The side of the boat thousands of sails, sick trees before the spring. As the new power system gradually moves to the center of the stage of the power system, many construction problems are coming. However, "there are always more ways than difficulties", I believe that under the painstaking exploration and unremitting efforts of the vast number of energy and power practitioners, relevant solutions will spring up like bamboo shoots after a rain, and jointly play the prelude of the era of new power system.
Wuhan Xinshengneng is a professional manufacturer of electric power test equipment, with excellent product quality, stable performance, complete models and guaranteed after-sales service. Welcome to call 0312-3188565 consultation!
