Local governments should come up with step-by-step timetables and road maps to achieve peak carbon emissions in a scientific and rational way and in light of local conditions. They should promptly correct the "one-size-fits-all" approach to power and production restriction or the "campaign" approach to carbon reduction. They should adhere to the principle of making decisions first and then breaking them down, accelerate the construction of a new power system, and promote the transition to clean energy.
On October 26, 21, The State Council issued the Action Plan to Peak Carbon emissions by 2030, which stated, "Vigorously develop new energy", "develop hydropower according to local conditions", "actively develop nuclear power in a safe and orderly manner", "accelerate the construction of new power systems", and "by 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption should reach 25%. Cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by at least 65% from 2005, and smoothly achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030.
Recent global energy prices are soaring and warning, energy shortage again carbon reach peak carbon neutral (hereinafter referred to as the "double carbon") will be a bumpy road twists and turns of a long-term process, under the background of climate change energy supply risk control toward normalization, should be scientific and rational, adjust measures to local conditions around the proposed carbon peak step timetable and roadmap, We will promptly correct the "one-size-fits-all" policy of limiting electricity production or the "carbon reduction campaign", adhere to the national strategy of making progress first and then breaking down, accelerate the development of a new power system, and promote the transition to clean energy.
Energy prices are rising fast, hitting record highs
Since the second half of this year, coal prices have risen rapidly and repeatedly hit record highs. The main contract of thermal coal futures once exceeded 1,900 yuan/ton, more than three times the price of the same period in 2020 (592 yuan/ton) and 6.7 times the low price of November 2015 (283.2 yuan/ton). The rising coal price has greatly pushed up the production cost of downstream industries and adversely affected the stable supply of electricity and winter heating, which has been strongly reflected by all sectors of society.
At the same time, the global energy shortage is becoming more and more intense, Europe, America, Asian countries are suffering from the impact of energy shortage to varying degrees, crude oil, natural gas, thermal coal prices have risen continuously. Dutch TTF gas futures, known as the "bellwether" for European gas prices, have risen almost fourfold from €17.88 / MWH at the start of the year to €87.90 / MWH on October 22. On Oct. 22, ICE UK gas futures traded at 219.22 pence per kilocalories, a record high, while Brent crude oil traded at $84.12 a barrel, the highest since October 2018. In its October 21 Commodity Market Outlook, the World Bank predicted that energy prices would continue to rise modestly in 2022 after surging more than 80% in 2021, posing a significant near-term risk to inflation in many developing countries.
It is urgent to build a new power system with new energy as the main body
In the short term, the tension between supply and demand is the main reason for the rapid rise of coal prices. The rapid economic recovery in the first half of the year, coupled with the winter peak, has led to a rapid growth in electricity demand. In the first three quarters of 2020, the total social electricity consumption in China is 6.17 trillion KWH, with a year-on-year growth of 12.9%, much higher than the historical level of the same period. In the long run, the simultaneous emergence of energy shortages around the world, from Europe and the United States to emerging economies such as India and Brazil, shows that there are global and inevitable reasons behind the problem. The current renewable energy-oriented energy transformation is the common choice of all countries to cope with the challenge of climate change, and the large-scale grid connection of renewable energy power generation, coupled with the rapid growth of global energy demand, and some countries "abandon nuclear" and "cut coal", are the underlying reasons behind this round of soaring international energy prices.
Large-scale grid integration of intermittent, unstable and seasonal renewable energy requires systematic solutions. On March 15 this year, China proposed to build a new power system with new energy as the main body, which means that wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower will be the main body of the future power system, and coal power will be reduced to auxiliary energy. There is a pressing need for a revolution in energy science, technology and theory, breaking into the "no man's land" of scientific and technological innovation and overcoming many key technological barriers in the areas of new energy grid connection, large-scale energy storage, smart grids, energy management systems and hydrogen energy. At the same time, it is urgent to formulate the theoretical framework and action plan for the construction of new power system forward-looking, so as to make the transition path of clean energy more clear.
The road to "dual carbon" will be a bumpy and tortuous process. We should fully understand the long-term and arduous process and advance the decarbonization process in a scientific and orderly way. Countries have set "dual carbon" targets and road maps, which have significantly reduced the willingness of local governments and energy companies to invest in the upstream sector of fossil energy. With the proposal of the concept of "new power system", "de-coal" has become one of the key words of the power industry. The coal industry is faced with the problem of repositioning in the power system, and the investment risk is large, and the investment motivation is obviously insufficient. In the oil and gas sector, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently warned that investment in the oil and gas sector should no longer be taken lightly, with global investment in oil and gas falling by 20% in 2020. Gal Luft, co-director of the Us-based Institute for Global Security, sees the energy shortages in some key countries as a warning "that decarbonisation can have an adverse impact on the world economy if it goes too fast. If the ensuing economic crisis is compounded by the energy crisis and food crisis, it will be very difficult.
Balance the "dual carbon" target with short-term stable energy supply
In the context of the "dual carbon" strategic goal, how to comprehensively consider the way to promote the long-term strategic goal in the short term and deal with the relationship between development and carbon reduction under the "dual carbon" constraint is the key.
First of all, to deal with the "double carbon" constraint, we should fully consider the stage of economic development. On the one hand, China is in a critical stage of industrialization, electrification and intelligent transformation and upgrading in the next decade, requiring a large amount of energy and electricity, and the demand for electricity is growing rapidly. On the other hand, in the future, China is a super-scale power grid, and renewable energy is mainly distributed in northwest China. Before the development and application of large-scale energy storage battery technology, with the continuous growth of installed renewable energy, thermal power units used for peak regulation will continue to maintain a certain growth trend in the short and medium term. According to experts' estimates, At present, every 100 kW renewable energy installation needs to be matched by 30 kW thermal power units. To this end, it is necessary to make a scientific and rational timetable for carbon peak in each region. The peak time of carbon should not be advanced too early in areas with rapidly growing power demand and power enterprises mainly based on thermal power.
Second, adhere to innovation to achieve economic development and carbon reduction win-win. Innovation is an important driving force for high-quality energy development and the realization of the "dual carbon" goal. It is also a fundamental way to solve the dilemma of development and carbon reduction in the short term. The goal of "dual carbon" is to decouple energy production, industrial processes and social activities from carbon. The realization process includes five sub-goals and requires technological innovation, institutional innovation and institutional innovation. Is a clean energy production, from fossil energy primarily to give priority to with renewable energy, reducing carbon emissions is the key to technology innovation, to speed up the energy key core technology and equipment research, including energy storage, smart grid, energy management system and the hydrogen technology breakthrough, enhance the level of intelligent power grid at the same time, enhance the ability of given new energy power generation; Second, the electrification of energy consumption. Enterprises try not to use fossil energy in the production process, but switch to electricity, and consumers try to substitute electricity in the life process, such as electric cars, electric heating, electric heating, etc. Third, energy technologies should be more efficient. We should strengthen research and development of green and low-carbon cutting-edge technologies, attach importance to the application of energy conservation and emission reduction technologies in industrial production and household life, and take energy conservation as the primary energy source. Fourth, the marketization of the energy system, further promoting the reform of the electricity market, including the paid peak adjustment market on the supply side, the inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity trading market on the grid side and the competitive electricity market on the demand side, and improving the policy of stepped electricity price; Fifth, the internationalization of energy cooperation. The United States and Europe are putting pressure on China on the climate issue. We should use the pressure as a driving force and actively explore new ways of international cooperation. Another example is to actively explore mutual recognition of carbon quotas and carbon tax exemption mechanisms in line with international mechanisms, and include relevant content in bilateral and multilateral free trade agreement negotiations.
Thirdly, to promote the "dual carbon" goal, we should adhere to the principle of establishing first and breaking later. China is currently in a critical period of rapid urbanization development, urbanization has not been completely finished, the demand for electricity, steel, cement has a certain rigidity, in 2020, China's permanent population urbanization rate is 63.89%, crude steel output 1.065 billion tons, an increase of 7% year on year. New energy power generation to replace thermal power is the future development trend, but the premise of replacement must be established first and then broken, and gradually establish a stable network mechanism of new energy power generation.
Finally, to clarify the "double carbon" understanding of some "misunderstanding". Some people believe that achieving the "dual carbon" goal is the process of "removing coal", which is not completely accurate. It is urgent to think deeply and systematically about the re-understanding of coal positioning. In the short and medium term, large-scale grid connection of renewable energy power generation still requires a certain proportion of thermal power peak-regulating units. Coal power will not change its role as the underpinning power source and ballast rock for stable power supply until large-scale batteries for renewable energy storage are developed. In the long run, developing coal clean utilization is the fundamental way. Coal coal is at present, our country from the last century, "1.0" in the era of fuel, after 2000 the raw material of The Times, "coal 2.0" to 3.0 "coal" in the era of material use shift, convert this energy from coal resources, rather than burn down at once, as he used to know the change is likely to bring the reshaping of the technological change and industrial pattern. In addition, carbon neutrality is not equal to no carbon emissions, but refers to the man-made emissions and removal of carbon dioxide offset, to achieve a dynamic balance. The power industry can only reduce carbon emissions as much as possible. Even if carbon capture and storage equipment is installed, it cannot achieve "zero carbon" or decarbonization production due to the limitation of decarbonization efficiency and the consumption of electricity in the production and operation stage of carbon capture equipment.
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